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Thursday, December 14, 2017

What is your estimate?

Quick:

Your power is down to your island.  You haven't even had time to assess, and there are people who need answers today.  How many lines need to be repaired?  How many lines need to be replaced? How many towers do you need?  How many transformers?  How many insulators?

Just days before I arrived here in Puerto Rico, there were a hundred people in a massive meeting, and they came armed with forms and numbers and assistants who carried more of pieces of paper with more numbers. The cost estimator stood up, pointed to the spreadsheet projected on the screen, and explained (through a translator, for those who spoke less English):

What we have here is every region in Puerto Rico, with the number of miles of power lines associated with each area.  What we need you to do is help us figure out how much damage there was for each of the lines in your district.  We need two estimates:  how many poles per mile you think are damaged, and how many poles per mile you think are destroyed.

"Arecibo, there exists in your district 72 miles of the 230kv transmission lines.  How much do you estimate is damaged?  How much destroyed?"


The three people from Arecibo start working through their reports, looking for answers to provide  to the group, hoping to get the number right.  Guessing too low would mean that there would be areas left undone.  But it needs to be a serious estimate, and any fluff would take away from areas of the country that have need.

 The transformer lines - the big metal towers - are the easiest, because helicopters flew the lines and counted downed towers.  All those need to be replaced, and we can estimate damage to  the others. The answer is 50 miles.

"Good.  Now let's do the next one.  How about the 115kv lines?"

One by one, line by line, region by region, the estimates are provided, and once everyone agrees, Derek puts them up on the spreadsheet.

And that is the estimate that we have been using for our work on ever since.

We immediately ordered half of what the spreadsheet said we needed.  The spreadsheet reflected a wish list, and most of the system needs to be replaced - Puerto Rico has struggled to invest in and provide upgrades to the infrastructure.  That wish list is huge.



More importantly, though, we needed materials to start arriving.  Puerto Rico does not have the resources to produce wire, transformers, insulators, and poles (well, some limited production of poles from a local concrete company).  So everything has to come from the mainland.  By boat.  It is a logistical nightmare.  As we have refined estimates of damages, we have ordered more as needed.

84 days after the storm passed, and we are just now seeing some of the materials we ordered that first day.  Hangups in Savannah.  Issues in Jacksonville.  And other areas of the country are also needing the same resources, so we are competing for scarce resources and paying more for them, which means the money doesn't go as far.

The local power authority folks are running as hard and as fast as they can. They have hired crews and put thousands on the ground fixing lines and scavenging the parts from the downed lines.  The USACE-contracted crews are doing the same.  We are working in complimentary distribution, and connecting the grids as quickly as possible.  And it is working.  Today we have provided 60+ percent of the load that was recorded historically in the system.

That doesn't directly translate to people with electricity.  Just that we have power to the lines.  But it is an important step, and a needed step.  Now, the steps that follow have to be done very carefully.

One major issue has been dogging us from the start: who does the Last Mile?  The Last Mile refers to the final step - hooking up the power to the house, and giving people back their lights. Most people on the mission agree that we are here to provide temporary power to the people of Puerto Rico, not just power the grid.  So the Last Mile is seen as taking that final step, regardless of the liability issues, which are not inconsiderable.  I am working on another blog entry specifically on the Last Mile, so look for that in the coming days.

Our leadership has agreed, and we are under current direction (electricity pun, anyone?) to make it happen.  We are going to do the Last Mile.  And it will be expensive, difficult, and fraught with problems.  But dangit.  That is why we are here.

Estamos aqui. 

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